They call it a lottery for a reason. The process to determine who gets the first pick in the NBA draft is anything but a sure bet. Just ask the Detroit Pistons.
Detroit had the best odds to win the 2024 draft lottery and pick first as the league’s worst team, but thanks to a random drawing of ping pong balls, that first selection went to the long-shot Atlanta Hawks instead.
It’s a reminder that being the worst team in the NBA isn’t always enough to secure the best pick. And that’s worth emphasizing as Cooper Flagg remains the expected number one selection in June’s draft.
Flagg’s impressive performance this year at Duke University, which plays its final regular season game on Saturday, has firmly ensconced his place atop draft boards. Mock drafts from ESPN, USA Today and CBS Sports all have Flagg going first overall.
But how will the actual draft play out? We can’t predict the future, but we can take a look at the process.
Mechanics of the lottery
The draft itself doesn’t start until June 25, but the question of who gets that first overall pick will be answered during the May 12 lottery.
As explained by the NBA, each of the league’s 14 teams with the lowest records will be assigned odds for receiving the first pick. The teams with the three worst records will each have a 14 percent chance of winning the first pick. The fourth worst team will have a 12.5 percent chance, the fifth worst a 10.5 percent chance, all the way down to the 14th worst team, which will have a .5 percent chance at the top overall pick.
Each team will have a ping pong ball assigned to them, and those 14 balls will be placed in a lottery machine. A combination of four balls will be drawn from the machine to determine the first pick. There are 1,001 possible combinations, and 1,000 of those will be assigned to one of the 14 teams in the lottery.
“All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed,” the NBA explains on its website. “The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.”
It’s all a bit dizzying if you, like this reporter, struggle with math. But the reality of the situation is clear even to the mathematically challenged: We won’t know which team will have the first pick until May 12.
Worst teams with the best shot
The fourteen teams with the worst NBA records as of Friday are the Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers, New Jersey Nets, Chicago Bulls, San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trailblazers, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat.
At the bottom of the list, and thus projected to have the best odds in the lottery, are Washington, Charlotte, Utah, New Orleans and Toronto.
Flagg ‘living in the moment’
Flagg is widely expected to be the first name called on draft day, and it’s not hard to figure out why. All he’s done in his freshman year, with the No. 2 Blue Devils heading into their regular season finale against North Carolina, is lead the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. It’s a feat that hasn’t been accomplished in the Atlantic Coast Conference in 25 years.
He also broke the record for most-ever Rookie of the Week honors in the ACC.
Duke fans asked him for “one more year” during Monday night’s win over Wake Forest, and Flagg apparently responded by saying, “Run it back.” He fielded questions about his future after that game.
“I’m living in the present right now, I’m living in the moment,” Flagg said, as shown in a video from the Fayettville Observer. “Taking it day by day, practice by practice, game by game.”
“I don’t know what the future holds,” Flagg added.
Still leading the pack
Here in the present, Flagg continues to be the odds-on favorite to be both the first pick in the draft and the John R. Wooden Award winner. That award, named after legendary former UCLA coach John Wooden, goes to the best player in men’s and women’s college basketball respectively.
In an analysis for ESPN on Friday, Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf both chose Flagg as the predicted player of the year over Auburn’s Johni Broome.
“Flagg has lived up to the hype,” Borzello and Medcalf wrote. “Anointed as the No. 1 player in his high school class and the projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft from the moment he reclassified in August of 2023, Flagg has not disappointed.”